SHAHLA MOHAMMADI

NEWS CENTER_Iran faces a critical turning point combining external military threats and growing regional isolation, amid stifling internal crises represented by internet restrictions and intensified security prosecutions. This report reviews the regime’s scenarios for dealing with these successive crises, the repercussions of land blockade and the future of civil and women’s movements in the face of new waves of repression.

To discuss the dimensions of a potential war and its repercussions on society, especially women, and the conditions they will face, our agency conducted the following dialogue with researcher and feminist and political activist Hermineh Hourdad:

External threats coincide with a severe disruption of the internet network and reports of raising its prices. In your opinion, how will the regime manage these crises, and what are the expected scenarios before Iran?

The Islamic Republic is a regime full of crises, and it resorts to creating them to cover up its incompetence, in order to keep society in a state of suspension and repression. Under the current circumstances and with the heavy shadows of war, there are three scenarios facing the country: First, tightening the security atmosphere and restricting the internet under the pretext of war conditions, which coincides with making financial profits from selling VPN networks, and increases the imposition of control over society.

Second, the outbreak of a comprehensive war that leads to the suspension of civil struggle, increased living pressures, and some groups being forced to align with the authority due to external attack. Third, a rift occurring in the layers of power and some parties within the regime attempting to ride the wave of popular discontent.

However, past experiences show that the different wings of power act as a single bloc at fateful turning points related to their existence and set their internal differences aside; a behavior that keeps the people outside the circle of decision and turns them into a mere tool to achieve the regime's goals.

With the closure of the Iraq and Pakistan crossings under the pretext of technical problems, how does this growing regional isolation affect the people and the regime in Iran?

We must separate the repercussions of this situation on the people and its repercussions on the authority. In border areas such as Kurdistan, Baluchistan, Khuzestan, and West Azerbaijan, the livelihood of porters (Kolbars) depends on cross-border trade and exchanges.

The closure of the borders and the continuous bombardment of their areas imposed unbearable living and security pressures on citizens and activists. The regime, fundamentally unable to secure livelihoods and create job opportunities, will not be able to continue bearing these pressures in the long term, because they will lead to the exacerbation and deepening of popular discontent.

At the regional level, no neighboring country wants the instability resulting from the Islamic Republic's behavior. Pakistan seeks stability through its mediation between Tehran and Washington, and Iraq, with its Arab-American orientations and the inclusion of the Revolutionary Guard on Western terrorist lists, is no longer able to show more alignment with Tehran. Meanwhile, the Gulf states and Qatar, whose economic wheel turns on the basis of stability, have grown tired of sterile diplomacy with the regime. In the end, this situation will not be sustainable, whether at the level of internal livelihood or at the level of international relations.

The recent accusations that the regime leveled against Ireland or Ukraine regarding the presence of drones in the Kurdistan Region are another model of the Islamic Republic's stirring up regional tensions. Internally, given the internet outage and the issuance of harsh rulings such as the upholding of the death sentence against Kurdish activist Varisha Moradi, which groups and civil activists will the new wave of repression target most?

You raised a very important point related to the global dimensions of the (Jin Jiyan Azadî) uprising; to the extent that members of Afghan sports teams, on their championship podiums, chanted slogans such as "No to Execution." In this atmosphere, the regime's repression is not limited to a specific group but targets any movement; from labor and professional unions protesting living conditions, to women's rights activists for whom any action they take to demand equality is criminalized.

In border areas, civil demands directly target the political structure, and there is a fine dividing line between them and political struggle. On the other hand, spontaneous protests, such as the uprising of the residents of Zahedan after Friday prayers or the "Bloody Friday" events, show that the authority severely represses even uprisings that were not planned in advance.

Forming the simplest civil groups now faces strict security prosecutions. The regime, due to its structural inability, resorts to holding society hostage through an arsenal of harsh rulings, such as travel bans for long years and turning the country into what resembles a large prison. In this stifling atmosphere, any popular movement falls under the weight of systematic targeting.

Given the prominent organization of the Iranian women's movement, how will women's role and contribution be in rebuilding the country's future amid the current critical conditions?

The women's movement in Iran is a dynamic and continuous movement that has not stopped over time, and has formed a network of small groups throughout the country and the region. These groups intertwine at fateful turning points and support one another. Especially after the (Jin Jiyan Azadî) uprising, the entire women's movement, from a woman singing in the street with people's support to the solidarity of women within circles and institutions, has become clearer and more prominent.

This comprehensive and firmly established movement possesses a dynamism that makes it resistant to falling under the weight of repression or government siege. Indeed, the regime's attempts to exploit it as a tool and for display purposes have lost their function and no longer deceive anyone.