NEWS CENTER — Researchers reported today, Tuesday, November 10th, that global carbon emissions from fossil fuels are heading toward a slight decrease of 0.4% in 2026, thanks to the boom in renewable energy projects and rising oil prices due to the war in Iran.

According to the "Global Carbon Budget" report, published to coincide with the UN Climate Summit (COP31) in Antalya, Turkey, this decline breaks the continuous upward curve throughout the past decade, during which emissions from coal, oil, and gas rose at a rate of 0.9% annually until reaching a record peak in 2025.

The report confirmed that this decrease will be the first annual decline since 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic paralyzed the global economy and the movement of trade and transport. The researchers found that the war initiated by the United States in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz contributed to reducing emissions, as they led to a decline in oil consumption amid a sharp rise in crude prices.

It noted that the deployment of solar panels, wind farms, and electric vehicles contributed to this decline, confirming that two-thirds of the increase in global energy demand is being met by solar power, wind power, and electric vehicles.

The director of the Global Carbon Budget office at the University of Exeter in Britain said that "the decline in carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels is encouraging, but this decline, which is partly due to geopolitical shocks, does not represent a sustainable climate solution," noting that the long-term solution remains in the rapid deployment of clean energy technologies.

For her part, Corinne Le Quéré, professor of climate change science at the University of East Anglia, explained that carbon emissions have been accustomed to rising again as economies recover after major shocks, such as the coronavirus pandemic and the global financial crisis, confirming that emissions may witness a rebound and a new rise once the severity of current oil tensions subsides.

The researchers stated that the decline in oil-related emissions by 1.9% last year represents a temporary and short-term response to the energy shock resulting from the war with Iran. In a related context, estimates indicate that gas emissions are heading toward a decrease of 0.3%, in contrast to an expected increase in emissions from coal use of 0.6%.

Estimates indicate a decrease in gas emissions of 0.3%, compared to a rise in coal emissions of 0.6%, bringing the total carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels to 38.2 billion tons in 2026. When adding emissions resulting from land-use change such as deforestation, total global emissions are expected to rise to 43.3 billion tons, compared to 42.8 billion tons recorded last year.